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“Sometimes what data tells you is uncomfortable because it’s challenging the norm,” he said at the time. “For me [it’s about] where we can make some marginal differences by using player data and challenging the perspectives of what the industry thinks should and does happen.”

The Gambling Commission suspended both licences with immediate effect on 28 August after enquiries revealed suspected social responsibility and AML failings. Reviews are now taking place under section 116 of the Gambling Act 2005. But in the wake of the suspension, the two sites have bowed to the inevitable and shut down completely.

According to the Commission’s licensing registry, Bet St George surrendered its four gambling licences on 4 September. BresBet surrendered its own licences on the same date.

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The new Belmont is significantly different than the sprawling venue it replaced. The former 1.25 million-square-foot grandstand, which had become vastly oversized for the contemporary racing crowd, was demolished to make way for a much smaller, modern facility with a focus on hospitality and premium seating.

Friday’s opening was deliberately capped at 6,000 spectators while construction continues. Only the first two levels of the new five-story grandstand are currently open, with the remaining sections scheduled for completion ahead of next year’s meet.

The redevelopment was financed by a $455 million loan from New York State, approved in 2023. State officials have projected the project will generate $155 million in annual economic activity once fully operational, along with around $10 million annually in state and local tax revenue.

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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.